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David's avatar
May 2Edited

One thing I think this article should have grappled with or at least mentioned is that the majority of EA funding still appears to be going to global health and development and animal welfare:

https://www.eagrantsdatabase.org/

Regarding overconfidence, its obviously challenging to assess how effective the AI safety/catastrophic risk interventions are. But given that AI is clearly a big deal, and that lots of smart people believe that there is a non trivial chance that it kills us all (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statement_on_AI_Risk) it does not seem crazy to me to be investing in interventions like the ones below:

https://coefficientgiving.org/funds/navigating-transformative-ai/

https://coefficientgiving.org/funds/global-catastrophic-risks-opportunities/

The article seems to confidently imply that many of these interventions are weird and bad, while simultanously criticizing EA as overconfident. Is it really EA that's being overconfident, and not the author of this article? Even if AI doesn't kill us all, it's having massive impacts on society already, and it certainly will in the future as well. I sorted the grants database by size and the largest grant in the "navigating transformative AI" category funds the Center for Security and Emerging Technology:

https://cset.georgetown.edu/about-us/

Its mission is below:

"A policy research organization within Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, CSET provides decision-makers with data-driven analysis on the security implications of emerging technologies. CSET is currently focusing on the effects of progress in artificial intelligence (AI), advanced computing and biotechnology"

Is that really a crazy wasteful thing to fund? Given the importance of AI I'm not so sure.

James Giammona's avatar

I appreciate the honesty and sincerity here. I also got into Effective Altruism in college (I made a video about how instead of donating to ALS for the Ice Bucket Challenge, I was donating to GiveWell).

And I got into AI and read Superintelligence by Bostrom when it came out. And I work in AI robotics now. And the certainty or at least conviction that there is a strong possibility of an AI Demon or God feels intellectually unserious.

I think you're right about the lack of humility, love for others and the world, maybe just calmness or playfulness. Instead there's exasperation if you don't see how AGI is coming very soon or is obviously already here.

I'm very open to changing my mind and entertaining the possibility, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence which current progress and handwaving at extending trend lines does not meet.

Anyway, great personal history of the parts of the movement and its trajectory.

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